Detection and attribution of anthropogenic drivers in extreme events
PD Dr. Petra Friederichs
University of Bonn | +49 228 73-5187 |
The project aims at the development of a thorough detection and attribution methodology (D&A) using the integrated model system (IMS). The D&A will include physical reasoning in terms of the energy and water cycle and use statistical space-time modelling for a comprehensive description of the spatiotemporal processes. The key questions for this project are: How well are we able to detect changes in the characteristics of extremes centered on energy and water budgets during heat waves and meteorological droughts? What is the role of the different changes in land and water use or anthropogenic emissions and how much of the detected changes can be attributed to specific forcings? The central hypothesis for this project is that regional changes in land and water use alter the onset and evolution of extremes in terrestrial and atmospheric energy and water budgets.