D01
Scenario development
PD Dr. Wolfgang Britz
University of Bonn | +49 228 73-2912 |
Summary
Project D01 will provide ex-ante land use cover and management scenarios reflecting different socio-economic developments. The scenarios with an annual resolution until 2050 will provide results at continental scale with sub-national detail. To consider interactions at regional and global scale due to market feedback, a recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model will be further developed and applied for the scenario quantification. This model covers all sectors of the economy with detail for sectors relevant for land use, and considers important drivers of structural change, such as income and demography dependent changes in consumption including diets. The story lines will be developed based on the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
D02
Simulating past and future responses of the terrestrial system to greenhouse gas forcing and regional anthropogenic interventions
Prof. Ph.D. Stefan Kollet
Forschungszentrum Jülich | +49 2461 619593 |
Jun. Prof. Dr. techn. Michael Schindelegger
University of Bonn | +49 228 73-6345 |
Summary
This project explores whether – and to what extent – anthropogenic interventions can lead to persistent, potentially unsustainable changes in the coupled water and energy cycles of the surface/sub-surface-atmospheric system. These fundamental questions are addressed by performing free, regional simulations of the terrestrial system from groundwater to the top of the atmosphere under consideration of water and energy balance constraints over the European continent and the adjacent ocean. A carefully designed hierarchy of experiments, both for historical and 21st century timelines, will facilitate identification and spatial localization of the anthropogenic impact against the background of natural variability and greenhouse gas forcing.
D03
A fully coupled regional reanalysis framework
Dr. Jan Keller
Deutscher Wetterdienst | +49 69 8062 2859 |
Prof. Dr. Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen
Forschungszentrum Jülich | +49 2461 614462 |
Dr. Arianna Valmassoi
Deutscher Wetterdienst | - |
Summary
This project aims to establish an Integrated Monitoring System (IMS) combining numerical modeling (for atmosphere, land surface and subsurface) and observations, i.e., the goal is to establish a reanalysis for the Earth system over Europe. Therefore, the system will be designed to provide the best estimates of the state of the Earth system for past decades. This will build a basis for further exploration in DETECT and beyond to assess the impact of human action on the terrestrial water and energy cycles. The system will account for the relevant processes in the terrestrial system as well as the exchanges of energy and mass between atmosphere, land surface and subsurface. This is realized in a regional reanalysis framework which consists of a fully-coupled terrestrial modeling framework including an explicit representation of irrigation processes as a main component of the anthropogenic water use and an adequate data assimilation scheme. While first relying on a weakly-coupled data assimilation scheme (i.e., all parts of the terrestrial system will be updated in separate data assimilation systems), work will later focus on the development of a strongly-coupled data assimilation scheme (i.e., all parts of the terrestrial system will be updated in a single consistent data assimilation step).
D04
Detection and attribution of anthropogenic drivers in extreme events
PD Dr. Petra Friederichs
University of Bonn | +49 228 73-5187 |
Summary
The project aims at the development of a thorough detection and attribution methodology (D&A) using the integrated model system (IMS). The D&A will include physical reasoning in terms of the energy and water cycle and use statistical space-time modelling for a comprehensive description of the spatiotemporal processes. The key questions for this project are: How well are we able to detect changes in the characteristics of extremes centered on energy and water budgets during heat waves and meteorological droughts? What is the role of the different changes in land and water use or anthropogenic emissions and how much of the detected changes can be attributed to specific forcings? The central hypothesis for this project is that regional changes in land and water use alter the onset and evolution of extremes in terrestrial and atmospheric energy and water budgets.
D05
Deep generative networks for detecting anomalous events in the water cycle
Prof. Dr. Juergen Gall
University of Bonn | +49 228 73-69600 |
PD Dr. Petra Friederichs
University of Bonn | +49 228 73-5187 |
Summary
Although there is a general expectation that extreme events in the water cycle are occurring more frequently and become stronger due to climate change, it remains a challenge to identify them in large simulation data sets. While extreme events can be defined based on impact indicators like agricultural droughts, these indicators do not cover all extreme events. We therefore aim to identify extreme events in simulated water cycle components by developing novel deep networks that detect anomalous events in simulated data.
D07
Mass fluxes and budgets at catchment and continental scales
Prof. Dr. Jürgen Kusche
University of Bonn | +49 228 73-2629 |
Summary
This project will analyse terrestrial/atmospheric and surface water fluxes and associated budget contributions from model simulations, reanalyses and remote sensing observations for all larger river basins in Europe. Modelling results will be combined with catchment-integrating observations like GRACE/-FO derived water storage variability and river discharge. We will compare the budgets from the CRC’s modelling system to global reanalyses and CMIP6 climate simulations. The project will quantify to what extent regional changes of land and water use contribute to observed budget changes. It will also quantify the terrestrial-atmospheric contribution of the modelling region to sea level budgets.
