D01
Scenario development
PD Dr. Wolfgang Britz
University of Bonn | +49 228 73-2912 |
Summary
Project D01 will provide ex-ante land use cover and management scenarios reflecting different socio-economic developments. The scenarios with an annual resolution until 2050 will provide results at continental scale with sub-national detail. To consider interactions at regional and global scale due to market feedback, a recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model will be further developed and applied for the scenario quantification. This model covers all sectors of the economy with detail for sectors relevant for land use, and considers important drivers of structural change, such as income and demography dependent changes in consumption including diets. The storylines will be developed based on the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Graphical summary
Contribution to the CRC
The land use cover and management information provided by project D01 will be down scaled to grid level applying the methodology developed in project B04. The joint aim of both projects is to inform the coupled Earth-System-Model.
Approach
Project D01 will use and further develop CGEBox (https://www.ilr.uni-bonn.de/em/rsrch/cgebox/cgebox_e.htm), a modular platform for CGE modeling. In addition to updating the database, an expansion of the land use drivers covered in the model is planned. Within the framework of the five SSPs, scenario narratives with a focus on land use cover and management will be developed and quantified. The land use results will be subjected to a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and a socio-economic and ecological welfare analysis.
Main results in 2022
Britz, W. (2022): Disaggregating Agro-Food Sectors in the GTAP Data Base, Journal for Global Economic Analysis 7(1): 44-75. https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.070102AF
